Analysis of Potential Snap Elections in Canada by 2023

The possibility of a snap election after 2021 largely hinges on several factors including party finances, public sentiment, and political dynamics. This article explores the likelihood of such an event by 2023, including the considerations of the ruling Liberal Party, opposition parties, and broader political conditions.

Liberal Party and Electoral Finance

It is unlikely that Prime Minister Trudeau will call another snap election in the near future. The Liberal party, known for its struggles with fundraising, likely still owes substantial debts from the last election. A snap election would require significant financial resources to mount a robust campaign. Given that the Liberal party may still be in the process of recouping its financial losses, a new election would likely wait until the party has enough funds to sustain a future campaign. Furthermore, the Canadian public, which bore a snap election fatigue after the 2021 event, would be unlikely to support another such election so soon after the last one.

Party Dynamics and Governance

Trudeau’s government faces no imminent threat to its coalition. While the Liberals may have mishandled their campaign strategies, they can continue to govern effectively with the support from the New Democratic Party (NDP). Most of the platform issues discussed by the government are socially acceptable to progressive voters. Moreover, the Green Party remains relatively irrelevant in the context of both climate and social policies.

While the government could theoretically be defeated on a substantive issue, which could trigger another election, such an event seems unlikely to happen. Another real danger in Canadian politics is the rise of partisan groups that mirror the Republican style in the United States. Partisan groups like the People’s Party of Canada (PPC) and fringe parties in Western Canada exert significant influence through social media, despite lacking electoral power.

Projections for Future Elections

The most likely scenario for the next election is between 2022 and 2023. This timeline is based on the average lifespan of a minority government in Canada, which is around 18 months. The weakened state of the NDP, which is currently cash-poor, further reinforces this timeframe. It is unlikely that the Liberals would call a snap election within the next year, given that the NDP is likely to be amenable to working with them for a period. As Neil Jamieson-Williams noted, calling a snap election similar to August 2021 would be politically suicidal.

However, if the Conservative and NDP parties replace their leaders, opportunistic behavior might result in another election. Governments and opposition parties’ coffers are currently empty, and calling an election would require significant resources. The Conservative party is expected to start its leadership succession process soon, adding to the complexity of the political landscape.

Overall, the political dynamics in Canada suggest that another snap election in the next year is not very likely. Trudeau’s government will wait until it has a stronger financial position and the broader political conditions favor another election.