Can the Russian Military Overthrow Putin? Unlikely, But Not Impossible

Putin's Popularity and Stability

It may seem like a plausible scenario for the Russian military to overthrow Vladimir Putin, but given his remarkable popularity and the current status of the country, such a coup is highly unlikely. Putin enjoys an elevated perception both domestically and internationally, excluding the Western bubble. His policies have led to an improvement in the country's standing in the global arena, making it difficult for any dissident faction to gain traction.

Historical Perspective and Risks of Coup Attempts

Historically, attempting a coup in Russia has often resulted in severe consequences. For instance, the streltsy, a corps of Russian guards, faced dire repercussions after attempting a coup with Peter the Great's sister. Such acts of rebellion rarely lead to positive outcomes. It is unequivocally clear that any individuals involved in such schemes would face dire consequences.

Internal Dynamics and Palace Coup Scenarios

A palace coup, where one or several factions within the Russian government take over, stands as a possible but unlikely scenario. This could occur if Putin were to accidentally fall out of a window multiple times, as the various factions could exploit such an unfortunate event. However, Putin has skillfully balanced these factions against each other, making this scenario quite improbable. Moreover, a palace coup would likely result in an even more authoritarian successor rather than a peaceful democratic transition.

Risks and Fears Surrounding a Coup

A military coup in Russia is unlikely to bring about tangible changes like democracy, press freedom, or a free market. Instead, it is more probable that a further slide to the right would be the outcome. This could include increased nationalism, oppression, brutality, and antagonistic policies.

Potential for Future Unrest

Currently, Putin's control remains too tight for a coup to succeed. However, this situation could change if Russia continues its ongoing war. The people may tire of the continued conflict and see their economy decline, resulting in a surge in public discontent. Competitors may also recognize opportunities and seek to exploit them. Reports of assassination attempts against Putin have circulated, but no concrete evidence has been provided. Putin's regime has a proven track record of targeting rivals, so such fears are not unfounded.

Conclusion

While a coup in Russia appears unlikely at present, it is important to acknowledge that the conditions for such an event could change. As long as Putin remains in power, an internal shift in the Russian government is improbable, but the potential remains.