The EU After Brexit: No Domino Effect, But Concerns Remain

Despite fears of a 'domino effect' and predictions of countries leaving the European Union (EU), the reality has proven to be quite different. In fact, the departure of the UK from the EU (Brexit) has served as a cautionary tale, demonstrating the potential economic and political risks of leaving the world's largest trading union.

Historical Context and Exceptions

The history of the European Union is quite unique in that it has faced only a few instances of countries leaving or technically leaving. Notably, Algeria, a former French colony, gained independence and ceased being an integral part of France and its EU presence. Greenland, despite remaining part of Denmark, was granted a special status allowing it to leave the EU. Additionally, the UK's Brexit referendum resulted in the country's formal exit from the EU in 2020. Currently, no other member state has expressed a strong political wish to leave the EU.

Populist Movements and EU Support

Populist and strong-man type political parties have gained significant traction in various European countries, often with anti-EU rhetoric. However, many of these parties have not prioritized anti-EU policies, which might be expected given their broader ideological stances. This could be attributed to a growing recognition of the benefits of EU membership, particularly in light of the challenges faced by the UK after Brexit. Populist parties' support for the EU has also weakened in the wake of Brexit, further highlighting the stability of the union.

Hungary and Poland as Concerns

While no country is currently seeking to exit the EU, concerns regarding compliance and adherence to EU rules persist. Hungary, in particular, stands out as a potential issue. Despite not officially leaving, Hungary consistently fails to comply with EU standards and faces the prospect of losing further EU funding and possible exclusion. Similarly, Poland has developed social disagreements with the EU, moving towards an old-fashioned conservative value system that contrasts with the EU's liberal direction on issues like gay rights and abortion. These discrepancies have led to speculation about Poland's future within the EU.

Other Applicants and Potential Risks

Serbia, an aspiring EU member, presents a unique case. Its anti-EU stance, driven by pro-Russian sympathies and a historical enmity towards NATO-aligned countries, raises questions about its genuine interest in joining such a union. The relationship between Serbia and the EU currently reflects a complex dynamic, with potential risks associated with its application process. Italy, on the other hand, presents a more nuanced situation. While the new right in Italy is not necessarily anti-EU, it advocates for a modified version of EU membership. This position, though concerning, does not signal an immediate threat to Italy's EU membership. Nevertheless, Silvio Berlusconi's successor, Giorgia Meloni, holds a more skeptical view of Putin, suggesting that this aspect may stabilize the relationship between Italy and the EU.

Reflecting on the Euro and Italy's Situation

Italy's inclusion in the Eurozone poses additional challenges. Unlike in the past when devaluation was a viable solution, Italy must now navigate the constraints associated with the common currency. The limitations of economic policy within the Eurozone have proven to be significant, with Italy facing unique economic difficulties. The hesitance to join the Euro in the first place could have been a wiser choice, given the current climate and the impact of the Euro on member states' economic sovereignty.

Conclusion: The EU has shown resilience in the face of various challenges, including Brexit. The absence of a 'domino effect' of exits demonstrates the stability of the union. However, the ongoing concerns in countries like Hungary, Poland, and potential issues with Serbia and Italy highlight the importance of continued compliance and dialogue within the EU. As the EU navigates these challenges, it is crucial to maintain a balanced approach that respects the sovereignty of member states while fostering a unified and prosperous Europe.

Keywords: EU membership, Brexit, European Union, Euro zone exits, Hungary, Poland