Will AEW Surpass WWE in Ratings in 2022?

The question of whether All Elite Wrestling (AEW) can surpass the global entertainment powerhouse WWE in terms of ratings and viewership is a complex one that depends on various factors, including content strategy, viewer demographics, and market conditions.

Understanding the Context

Talking about the possibility of AEW overtaking WWE is not a new question. Two years on from this initial inquiry, AEW has made significant strides in building its brand but still faces the challenge of competing with WWE's established presence in the wrestling industry. WWE, through its deal with Fox, has a substantial first-run TV content advantage, which provides a strong base for its viewership. However, the dynamics between AEW and WWE are continuously evolving, making it an intriguing subject for discussion.

AEW vs. WWE Viewership: A Comparative Analysis

The comparison of AEW and WWE viewership can be understood from different perspectives. If we consider individual show viewership, AEW has already overwhelming numbers. For instance, AEW#39;s Dynamite show has consistently surpassed WWE#39;s NXT, missing out only in one week out of the many observations. However, if we look at the total viewership from all WWE shows combined, AEW is far from catching up. WWE has the advantage of free TV channels, which significantly contribute to their overall viewership numbers.

So, the question evolves to whether AEW can surpass a specific WWE show like Saturday night RAW or Sunday night SmackDown. While AEW would need to perform exceptionally well to achieve this, there is potential for AEW Dynamite to outperform one of WWE's main roster shows. Here are a few factors to consider:

RAW vs. Dynamite: A Comparison of Viewership

One of the key shows to compare is RAW versus Dynamite. RAW's viewership records have shown a trend of declining viewership, especially in recent years. In 2021, the lowest viewership for RAW was 1.418 million, while the highest viewership for AEW Dynamite in the same year was 1.319 million. This suggests that AEW has a slight edge in years past but to actually surpass RAW, AEW would need to perform slightly better than a 15% drop from RAW's lowest record.

Considering this, it is theoretically possible for AEW to outperform RAW in a given week, especially if WWE experiences exceptionally low viewership. However, the regularity with which this would happen is uncertain. AEW would need to maintain a consistent level of excellence and innovation in its content to compete with WWE's established brand and network reach.

Future Projections and Market Dynamics

Efforts to surpass WWE in ratings seem to be more aligned with online viewership. The rise of streaming platforms and the decrease in traditional free TV viewership have created an environment where AEW is better positioned to gain a larger audience. McAvee’s statement about WWE firing staff and wrestlers leading to a decline in viewership is a cautionary note. If WWE continues to struggle and lose top talent, it could indeed impact viewership.

In contrast, AEW is actively building a stable of noteworthy wrestlers and has a robust online presence, which could help it attract and retain viewers more effectively. The success of AEW’s relationship with online streaming platforms and its ability to innovate regular storylines could further solidify its position in the wrestling market.

Conclusion

While AEW has made strides in overtaking WWE in certain weekly show viewership, surpassing WWE in overall ratings is a challenge that requires significant improvements in content, market conditions, and viewer demographics. The competition between these two wrestling powerhouses is dynamic, and while AEW has the potential to thrive, regular weekly beatdowns of RAW or SmackDown seem unlikely without predetermined extraordinary circumstances.